Uncertainty quantification and visualization tools for climate change adaptation

Summary

Long-term planning and decision-making regarding fundamental societal infrastructure such as transportation, energy supply  and water and drainage systems must account for a changing climate. Considerable challenges continue to exist in the understanding of climate change, the associated impacts and the identification of potential adaptation options. The relevant climate projections are typically associated with severe inherent uncertainty and it is critical that the decision-making appropriately accounts for this. 

The goal of this workshop is to advance the link between the knowledge and evidence base of future climate and the practical application of adaptation planning and decision-making. The workshop participants will have ample opportunity to present and discuss their perspectives on the practical and methodological challenges related to this. Substantial time will be spent to discuss how to manage climate change uncertainty and visualization products and services to visualize climate effects and responses, and to coordinate future collaboration between the participants of the workshop.  

Workshop report

Program

Day 1 - Monday, April 25 2016

09:00 - 10:00 Registration and opening

09:00   Registration and coffee
09:30   Introduction to the workshop
             Karianne de Bruin (CICERO, Norway) and Thordis Thorarinsdottir (NR, Norway)
09:50   Opening remarks
             Kristin Halvorsen (Director CICERO, Norway)

10:00 - 12:15 Session A: Climate change adaptation

10:00   A national perspective on climate change adaptation and the use of data in governance
             Ole-Kristian Kvissel (Norwegian Environment Agency, Norway)
10:25   Climate change adaptation at the municipality level 
             Ingrid E. Vedeler and Guro Kjerschow (Oslo Municipality, Norway)
10:50   How can insurance loss data increase climate resilience?
             Mia Ebeltoft (Finance Norway, Norway)
11:15   Comfort break
11:25   Break-out group disucssion

12:15 - 13:15 Lunch

13:10 Group photo

13:15 - 16:30 Session B: Uncertainty

13:15   Plenary reporting on group discussion in Session A
13:30   Better decisions with uncertainty
             Susan Joslyn (University of Washington, USA)
14:00   Projecting local sea level rise
             Peter Guttorp (NR, Norway)
14:20   Decision tools accounting for uncertainty
             Karianne de Bruin (CICERO, Norway)
14:40   Coffee break
15:10   Break-out group discussion
16:00   Summary of break-out group discussion
16:15   Closing reflection for day 1
             Rasmus Benestad (MET Norway, Norway)

19:00              Dinner

Day 2 - Tuesday, April 26 2016

09:00 - 12:15 Session C: Visualization

09:00   Reflections on Session B and introduction to day 2
09:15   Current visualization tools for climate information
             Astrid Arnslett (CICERO, Norway)
09:45  Climate adaptation services for the Netherlands: the power of visualization
             Hasse Goosen (Climate Adaptation Services, The Netherlands)
10:15   Coffee break and demo of visualization tools
11:00   Break-out group discussion
11:55   Summary of break-out group discussion

12:15 - 13:00 Lunch

13:00 - 14:00 Session D: Way forward

13:00   Break-out group discussion on the way forward
13:30   Plenary feedback
13:45   Conclusion

14:00               End of workshop and safe trip home

Local organizers: Karianne de Bruin (CICERO), Thordis Thorarinsdottir (NR) and Ola Haug (NR)

Funded by: The Research Council of Norway through project 249709/E10, "What do we know about the economics of adaptation? A workshop on practical and methodologcial challenges" and project 243953/E10 "Physical and statistical analysis of climate extremes in large datasets (ClimateXL)", and NordForsk through project 744556, "Statistical analysis of climate projections" (eSACP).